Tracking the US and China AI Arms Race

Eric Schmidt gives keynote address at global security summit emphasising technological competition with China

“By 2020 they will have caught up. By 2025 they will be better than us, and by 2030 they will dominate the industries of AI.”

– Eric Schmidt, ex Google CEO, speaking at the 2017 Global Security Summit

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National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence established, chaired by ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt

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Facebook (Meta) CEO Mark Zuckerberg argues that privacy rights will make US tech fall behind Chinese competitors

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Kai-Fu Lee, author of AI superpowers and ex-head of Google China, highlights growing chill in US/China tech relations

“I think cross-border will be very difficult,” he said. “I wouldn’t advise you to work for an American company trying to do business in China, or a Chinese company trying to do business in America — tech company anyway.”

– Kai Fu Lee (author, ML engineer and venture capitalist, ex Microsoft, ex Google)

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President and CEO of the Atlantic Council argues that China is getting the upper hand in the AI arms race

“Though it is a tech race most Western executives feel is only on its first laps, they heard how President Xi had declared a sort of space race or Manhattan Project around AI that is already delivering measurable results.”

– Frederick Kempe (President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council)

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CEO of Eye on AI claims that China’s authoritarian, Confucian culture gives them an edge in the AI arms race

“China is awash in data like no other country and with the Communist Party on one side and Confucian culture on the other, that data is being used to train AI systems with little of the resistance met in the West.”

– Craig Smith (former NYT journalist, CEO of Eye on AI, NSCAI podcast host)

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Sheryl Sandberg, Eric Schmidt and other Big Tech leaders argue that antitrust law will decrease US competitiveness with China

“While people are concerned with the size and power of tech companies, there’s also a concern in the United States with the size and power of Chinese companies, and the realization that these companies are not going to be broken up.”

– Sheryl Sandberg

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Tech Consultant Claims Breaking Up Big Tech Would Make Communist China Stronger

“Any effort to punish or break apart the technology companies for political reasons would, in effect, dismember the golden goose of American innovation and competitiveness and feed its carcass to the People’s Republic of China.”

– Asheesh Agarwal (Tech Consultant); The Federalist (Conservative news outlet)

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JANUARY 2021

Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and an MIT computer professor publish a book about the ‘Age of AI’ and the importance of Big Tech

The book brings together Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, and Daniel Huttenlocher, an eminent computer scientist and ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt to consider the advent of a so-called “age of AI”.

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The National Security Commission on AI Releases its Final Report, Claims that China’s AI development is a threat to all Americans

“The United States must act now to field AI systems and invest substantially more resources in AI innovation to protect its security, promote its prosperity, and safeguard the future of democracy.”

– Eric Schmidt (ex-Google CEO)

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Two US Senators send letter to National Science Foundation urging that AI is developed in line with ‘American Values’

“AI leadership by the United States is only possible if AI research, innovation, and use is rooted in American values.”

– Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.); Rob Portman (R-Ohio),

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Executive Order on Addressing the Threat from Securities Investments that Finance Certain Companies of the People’s Republic of China

“the administration’s emphasis on China’s “military-industrial complex” (and “Chinese military-industrial complex companies”) could send the wrong message”

– President Joseph Biden

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Biden Administration Releases Executive Order on Competition to promote US Domestic Innovation against ‘Foreign Cartels’

“This order reasserts as United States policy that the answer to the rising power of foreign monopolies and cartels is not the tolerance of domestic monopolization, but rather the promotion of competition and innovation by firms small and large, at home and worldwide.”

– President Joseph Biden

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Leading tech advocacy organisation publishes white paper critiquing antitrust bills as threat to US national security interests and the ‘innovation race’ with China

“The House of Representatives is considering several bills targeting leading U.S. technology firms with sweeping provisions that are in serious tension with the overall U.S. national innovation strategy to combat China and other adversaries.”

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12 former security officials publish letter arguing that US antitrust law undermines the US tech innovation system and makes China more competitive with the US

“We strongly believe it is in the best interest of our national and economic security to prevent China from achieving its objective of becoming the global leader in technological innovation.”

– Robert Cardillo, Dan Coats, Admiral James Foggo III, Richard H. Ledgett Jr., John D. Negroponte, Leon E. Panetta, Vice Admiral Jan E. Tighe, Frances Townsend, Susan M. Gordon, Michael Morell, Dr. Michael Vickers, Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld Jr.

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12 former security officials who warned against US antitrust law revealed to have ties to Big Tech

“The warning last week from a dozen former national security leaders was stark: An antitrust crackdown on Silicon Valley could threaten the nation’s economy and “cede U.S. tech leadership to China.”

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Special Competitive Studies Project founded to address intensifying geopolitical competition with China and Russia in the “age of AI”.

“We want to ensure that America is positioned and organized to win the techno-economic competition between now and 2030, the critical window for shaping the future.” “Technology competition has become a key element of a systemic competition over world over.”

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Microsoft ends partnership with leading Chinese drone company DJI after it is sanctioned by the US Treasury

“It has also been rumored that Microsoft has stopped recruiting from some Chinese universities.”

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White House names AI on its Critical and Emerging Technologies list of tech that could inform national security activities

Congress establishes the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, chaired by ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

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The Pentagon’s new digital and AI chief asks Eric Schmidt for help solving the DOD’s software problem

Congress establishes the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, chaired by ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

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Senator Rand Paul argues that protecting the US free market for Big Tech is essential for competing with China

“Politicians who are fretting about China’s drive for global economic dominance should think twice before dismantling the U.S. firms that invest heavily in artificial intelligence and can compete worldwide.”

– Rand Paul (Republican Senator, Kentucky)

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Eric Schmidt and Harvard profesor argue that Biden needs to launch a huge tech recruitment program to compete with China

“Immigration is the United States’ secret sauce—including in its competition with China.”

– Graham Allison, a professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School

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Bipartisan CHIPS act is passed, blocking certain chip exports to China, reducing its ability to make semiconductors

“The Act also includes safeguards to ensure that recipients of Federal funds from these programs cannot build advanced semiconductor production facilities in countries that present a national security concern.”

– Biden administration

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Succeeding in the AI Competition with China: A Strategy for Action

“Technology is at the center of the emerging competition between the United States and China, with far-reaching consequences for democratic societies.”

– Brookings

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Two US senators send the director of national intelligence a letter of concern regarding a proposed partnership between Apple and Chinese chipmaker Yangtze Memory Technologies Co

“Such a decision would introduce significant privacy and security vulnerabilities to the global digital supply chain that Apple helps shape given YMTC’s extensive, but often opaque, ties to the Chinese Communist party.”

– Mark Warner (Democratic chair of Senate intelligence committee); Marco Rubio (Republican Vice Chair)

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Special Competitive Studies Project releases first report framing US-China competition as the “defining feature of world politics today”

“The epicenter of the competition is the quest for leadership and dominant market share in a constellation of emerging technologies that will underpin a thriving society, growing economy, and sharper instruments of power.”

– Mark Warner (Democratic chair of Senate intelligence committee); Marco Rubio (Republican Vice Chair)

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US Chamber of Commerce VP Jordan Crenshaw flags AI arms race at House Subcommittee on Trustworthy AI

“When it comes to AI, we’re in a race we must win…We cannot afford to sit on the sidelines and allows those who do not share our democratic values set the standard for the world”

– Jordan Crenshaw (VP Chamber of Commerce)

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Advancing American AI Act directly cites recommendations from the NSCAI and emphasises restricting Chinese tech

“Another amendment seeks to share technology and other military equipment with Taiwan to further the U.S.’s economic partnership with the island, while the Israel-U.S. AI partnership would prohibit working with any entity that is linked to China.”

– Rob Portman (Republican Senator, Ohio); Gary Peters (Democrat Senator, Michigan)

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Brief about Emerging Non-European Monopolies in the Global AI Market highlights US’ and China’s lead

Argues that all of the cutting-edge general purpose AI models have been developed outside of the EU, with a focus on US and Chinese institutions.

– Rob Portman (Republican Senator, Ohio); Gary Peters (Democrat Senator, Michigan)

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U.S. expands bans of Chinese security cameras and network equipment, citing national security threat

“The Federal Communications Commission voted 4-0 to ban sales of new telecom and surveillance equipment made by several Chinese companies, arguing that their ownership and practices threaten U.S. national security.”

– FCC

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President of the Information Tech and Innovation Foundation critiques antitrust law as threat to national competitiveness

“They don’t think about the implications of their actions on US competitiveness. Their only goal is to think about whether it is going to lead to more competition”

– Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

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Former Trade Policy Counsel argues that antitrust crackdowns on Big Tech will hurt the US in competition with China

“Today, Beijing is trying to supplant the United States as the global leader for the commanding heights of technology. Healthy competition should be welcomed, but Beijing’s methods are unsavory.”

– Clark Packard (Former Trade Policy Counsel, Finance Insurance & Trade)

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Fortune frames ChatGPT as part of the AI arms race between the US and China

“ChatGPT is a salvo in a growing generative A.I. ‘arms race’ between the U.S. and China”

– Fortune

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FBI director argues China’s AI program will be weaponised against the US at Davos

“The Chinese government has a bigger hacking program than any other nation in the world.”

– Christopher Wray (FBI Director)

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US Chamber of Commerce Report on AI Explicitly Cites Threat of China’s Rise As Driving Factor Behind US AI Innovation Plans, Promotes Private-Military US Partnerships in Response

“To capitalize on American ingenuity, Congress and the Pentagon must look at streamlining acquisition processes and finding new ways of incorporating industry expertise and experience within the military enterprise”

– US Chamber of Commerce Commission on Artificial Intelligence Competitiveness, Inclusion, and Innovation

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